Executive assessment
The planned two-location London trial could cover its operating costs under the central participation assumptions, while still needing launch funding before cumulative operating break-even.
Central one-year trial revenue
Before setup costs and tax
Central opening envelope
“Trial” here means a 12-month commercial pilot charging the £4.50 coordination fee, rather than free access for a year.
Basis of the review
This review uses the one-year model, £4.50 fee and 30-venue target per area (60 overall) for the two planned London locations planning case.
This report treats its figures as illustrative planning assumptions. The principal planning points for the one-year trial are:
- Acquire the registered audience throughout the year.
- Separate annual operating results from the cash needed before break-even.
- Treat the 30 venues per area (60 overall) as a target, with onboarding and capacity checked during the trial.
- Replace the label “Average” with “Central assumption”; there is no evidence that this represents an industry average.
- Resolve the treatment of VAT and validate the operating budget before relying on the projected surplus.
Trial assumptions
The model combines gradual acquisition, staged activity, the direct £4.50 coordination-fee assumption and the current operating budget.
| Input | Assumption used |
|---|---|
| Trial duration | 12 months from launch |
| Launch locations | Two London neighbourhood operating catchments starting together; specific locations are not yet announced |
| Registered users | Both areas grow evenly from zero to 10,000 each (20,000 overall) at the end of Month 12 |
| Average acquisition | Approximately 1,666.67 registrations per month overall |
| Revenue calculation | Uses the audience midpoint between opening and closing registration balances each month |
| Venue target | 30 per area; 60 participating venues overall by the end of the trial |
| Coordination fee | £4.50 per paid player appearance |
| Activity ramp | 50% in Q1, 75% in Q2, 100% in Q3 and Q4 |
| Monthly operating costs | £34,359.20 |
| Annual operating costs | £412,310.40 |
| Other income | None |
| Venue spend | Collected by venues; excluded from MYM revenue |
Formula
Monthly revenue = average registered users × scenario paying share × games per payer × activity factor × £4.50.
The acquisition ramp and activity factor serve different purposes and are applied once each.
Fee and cost bases
The average coordination fee of £4.50 per paid player appearance is a direct sterling planning assumption for the planned two-location London launch, not a currency conversion. The operating cost base uses a euro-denominated per-area planning budget converted once at the 9 September 2026 reference rate, then replicated across both areas with no assumed saving.
Cost-side reference rate: EUR 1 = GBP 0.85898, European Central Bank euro reference rates, 9 September 2026.
- Both areas start together, and each month uses the audience midpoint between opening and closing registration balances.
- No subscriptions, sponsorship, equipment sales or other income are assumed.
- Paying share means the share paying in a given month, not everyone who has ever paid.
- Retention and reactivation are implicit in this assumption; they are not yet supported by customer cohort data.
- All operating results are before tax. No tax rate is asserted.
- The £4.50 average is treated as recognised revenue. If applicable tax is included in the customer price, recognised revenue would be lower.
- No financing, depreciation or capital expenditure schedule is modelled.
- The trial model separates annual operating result from the cash needed before break-even.
- Both areas start together. Their registered audiences are acquired evenly through the year, and each month uses the audience midpoint between opening and closing balances.
- The 30-venue target in each area (60 overall) is an end-of-trial planning target; not all venues are assumed active immediately.
- The £34,359 monthly cost is an all-in operating assumption with no validated breakdown.
- Actual traction has not been supplied or verified for this projection. The model assumes 2 planned London locations, each treated as a neighbourhood operating catchment rather than an individual venue, with 10,000 registrations and 30 target venues per area (20,000 registrations and 60 target venues overall).
- The operating cost base and equipment prices use euro-denominated planning inputs converted once at the European Central Bank euro reference rate of 9 September 2026, EUR 1 = GBP 0.85898. The average coordination fee of £4.50 per player per game is a separate, direct sterling assumption for the London launch — not a conversion.
One-year scenario projections
Figures are rounded to the nearest pound. Operating results exclude additional setup spending, financing, depreciation and corporation tax, and retain the assumption that £4.50 is recognised revenue.
| Measure | Underperforming | Central | Strong |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paying share at full activity | 10% | 25% | 40% |
| Games per monthly payer | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| Year-one revenue | £99,563 | £497,813 | £1,194,750 |
| Operating costs | £412,310 | £412,310 | £412,310 |
| Operating surplus / (loss) | (£312,748) | £85,502 | £782,440 |
| First month covering monthly costs | Not reached | Month 7 | Month 4 |
| Cumulative operating break-even | Not reached | Month 11 | Month 6 |
| Peak cumulative operating cash deficit | £312,748 | £113,343 | £62,578 |
Central-case quarterly projection
Totals use unrounded calculations; displayed amounts may differ by £1 when added.
| Measure | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Registered users at quarter end | 5,000 | 10,000 | 15,000 | 20,000 | 20,000 |
| Average registered users | 2,500 | 7,500 | 12,500 | 17,500 | 10,000 |
| Activity factor | 50% | 75% | 100% | 100% | — |
| Revenue | £16,875 | £75,938 | £168,750 | £236,250 | £497,813 |
| Operating costs | £103,078 | £103,078 | £103,078 | £103,078 | £412,310 |
| Operating surplus / (loss) | (£86,203) | (£27,140) | £65,672 | £133,172 | £85,502 |
Funding requirement
A provisional funding envelope can combine the peak operating deficit with a separate setup allowance and contingency.
| Funding component | Central case | Underperforming case |
|---|---|---|
| Peak operating cash deficit | £113,342.70 | £312,747.90 |
| Illustrative setup allowance | £50,000.00 | £50,000.00 |
| Contingency: 15% of annual operating costs | £61,846.56 | £61,846.56 |
| Provisional opening funding | £225,189.26 | £424,594.46 |
| Rounded planning envelope | £230,000 | £425,000 |
- The £50,000 setup allowance and 15% contingency are illustrative allowances, not supplier estimates.
- Setup spending must cover only items outside the monthly operating budget to avoid double counting.
- These figures assume customer receipts and operating payments occur in the same month. They exclude settlement delays, payment reserves and separately scheduled tax payments.
- £230,000 supports the central assumptions; it does not secure a full year under weak demand.
- Approximately £425,000 supports the modelled underperforming case with the stated allowances. At zero revenue, the exact equivalent requirement is £524,156.96, or approximately £525,000 as a prudent envelope.
- If setup costs are fully expensed during the trial, the central £85,502 operating surplus reduces to approximately £35,502 before tax, before any contingency is spent.
Break-even and sensitivity
At £4.50 recognised revenue per appearance and the existing all-in budget, monthly operating break-even is 7,636 paid appearances, rounded up.
paid appearances per month
monthly paying players playing four times each
appearances per venue per month across 60 active venues
monthly operating cost assumption
| Change to central assumptions | Annual operating result |
|---|---|
| Baseline | £85,502 surplus |
| Paid activity 25% below projection | (£38,951) loss |
| Operating costs 20% above budget | £3,040 surplus |
| Additional unbudgeted cost of £0.50 per paid appearance | £30,190 surplus |
| £4.50 includes 20% VAT throughout the trial | £2,533 surplus |
- Each sensitivity is applied separately.
- Additional per-appearance costs should be included only if they are absent from the existing all-in budget.
- The VAT illustration assumes £3.75 recognised revenue from a £4.50 customer payment, unchanged costs and no input VAT recovery. It is a full-year stress test, not a prediction of MYM’s actual tax position.
- The UK standard VAT rate is 20%; registration generally becomes mandatory above £90,000 taxable turnover, with separate rules for businesses based outside the UK. Both central and strong scenarios require explicit VAT planning. Sources: GOV.UK VAT rates and GOV.UK VAT registration.
What the trial must establish
Review these measures at Months 3, 6, 9 and 12. Expansion should depend on observed contribution, retention, capacity and remaining cash.
Acquisition economics
Reaching 20,000 registrations requires approximately 1,666.67 registrations each month across both areas. The current budget has no validated acquisition breakdown. MYM should measure spending per first-time paying customer, alongside registration costs.
Repeat paid behaviour
The central scenario depends on 25% of the registered base paying monthly at full activity and playing four times a month. Track first-to-second paid game conversion and 30-, 60- and 90-day repeat use.
Venue capacity
In Month 12, the central case generates approximately 19,167 paid appearances. Across 60 active venues, that is roughly 319 appearances per venue: approximately 160 two-player sessions or 80 four-player sessions per month. Actual planning must reflect the game mix, session length and available time slots.
Realised fee income
Track completed paid appearances, refunds, discounts and payment costs separately. Registrations, created games and incomplete rosters should not be treated as earned revenue.
A complete operating budget
Replace the converted lump-sum allowance with sterling estimates for people, technology, acquisition, venue onboarding, support, payments, insurance and administration. Confirm which launch expenses sit outside it.
- Registration → first paid game. The single most diagnostic conversion in the trial.
- 30 / 60 / 90-day repeat paid retention. Whether a payer comes back at all.
- Games per payer per month. The frequency term in the revenue formula.
- Contribution per appearance. £4.50 average less observed direct cost per appearance.
- CAC per paying player. Not per registration.
- Payback on observed retention. CAC against real, measured repeat behaviour.
- Fill rate. Share of created games that reach a full paid roster.
- Time to fill. From game creation to the last required payment.
- Cancellation, no-show and refund rate. Realised versus booked appearances.
- Venue retention. Venues still hosting games after 30, 60 and 90 days.
- Total-spend sensitivity. Behaviour when the fee and venue minimum are seen together.
Conclusion
A cautious framework for a commercial pilot, not proof of traction.
MeetYourMatch’s one-year two planned London locations trial is potentially viable, but its financial outcome depends on acquiring and retaining a paying audience within a controlled operating budget.
With registrations growing to 20,000 over 12 months, the central model generates approximately £497,813 in revenue and £85,502 in operating surplus before additional setup costs and tax. Monthly operating break-even is reached in Month 7, while the initial operating cash deficit peaks at approximately £113,343.
A provisional funding envelope is £230,000 under the central assumptions, increasing to approximately £425,000 under the modelled underperforming case. These amounts must be refined using actual operating quotes, acquisition results and confirmed VAT treatment.
The trial’s purpose is to establish whether players repeatedly pay for coordination and whether MYM can deliver that service profitably. The projections provide a framework for that test; they do not establish demand.