Planned two-location paid trial

Financial Projections
— One-Year Trial

Prepared: 22 September 2026 · Scope: two planned London locations · 12 months from launch · GBP

A central case for a paid commercial pilot, using gradual acquisition to 20,000 registrations by Month 12 and the £4.50 coordination fee. Actual traction has not been supplied or verified for this projection. The model assumes 2 planned London locations, each treated as a neighbourhood operating catchment rather than an individual venue, with 10,000 registrations and 30 target venues per area (20,000 registrations and 60 target venues overall).

Central assumption
£497,813

one-year revenue

Operating surplus
£85,502
Peak deficit
£113,343
Funding is separate

Central provisional opening funding: £230,000.

01

Executive assessment

The planned two-location London trial could cover its operating costs under the central participation assumptions, while still needing launch funding before cumulative operating break-even.

Revenue
£497,813

Central one-year trial revenue

Operating result
£85,502 surplus

Before setup costs and tax

Funding
£230,000

Central opening envelope

Both areas start together and grow registrations evenly from zero to 10,000 each, or 20,000 overall, by Month 12. Under the central case, that produces £497,813 revenue and £85,502 operating surplus before setup costs and tax.
The trial should be presented as a test of customer acquisition, repeat paid use and delivery costs. Its profitability remains conditional on assumptions that have not yet been validated.

“Trial” here means a 12-month commercial pilot charging the £4.50 coordination fee, rather than free access for a year.

02

Basis of the review

This review uses the one-year model, £4.50 fee and 30-venue target per area (60 overall) for the two planned London locations planning case.

This report treats its figures as illustrative planning assumptions. The principal planning points for the one-year trial are:

  • Acquire the registered audience throughout the year.
  • Separate annual operating results from the cash needed before break-even.
  • Treat the 30 venues per area (60 overall) as a target, with onboarding and capacity checked during the trial.
  • Replace the label “Average” with “Central assumption”; there is no evidence that this represents an industry average.
  • Resolve the treatment of VAT and validate the operating budget before relying on the projected surplus.
03

Trial assumptions

The model combines gradual acquisition, staged activity, the direct £4.50 coordination-fee assumption and the current operating budget.

Trial assumptions
InputAssumption used
Trial duration12 months from launch
Launch locationsTwo London neighbourhood operating catchments starting together; specific locations are not yet announced
Registered usersBoth areas grow evenly from zero to 10,000 each (20,000 overall) at the end of Month 12
Average acquisitionApproximately 1,666.67 registrations per month overall
Revenue calculationUses the audience midpoint between opening and closing registration balances each month
Venue target30 per area; 60 participating venues overall by the end of the trial
Coordination fee£4.50 per paid player appearance
Activity ramp50% in Q1, 75% in Q2, 100% in Q3 and Q4
Monthly operating costs£34,359.20
Annual operating costs£412,310.40
Other incomeNone
Venue spendCollected by venues; excluded from MYM revenue

Formula

Monthly revenue = average registered users × scenario paying share × games per payer × activity factor × £4.50.

The acquisition ramp and activity factor serve different purposes and are applied once each.

Fee and cost bases

The average coordination fee of £4.50 per paid player appearance is a direct sterling planning assumption for the planned two-location London launch, not a currency conversion. The operating cost base uses a euro-denominated per-area planning budget converted once at the 9 September 2026 reference rate, then replicated across both areas with no assumed saving.

Cost-side reference rate: EUR 1 = GBP 0.85898, European Central Bank euro reference rates, 9 September 2026.

  • Both areas start together, and each month uses the audience midpoint between opening and closing registration balances.
  • No subscriptions, sponsorship, equipment sales or other income are assumed.
  • Paying share means the share paying in a given month, not everyone who has ever paid.
  • Retention and reactivation are implicit in this assumption; they are not yet supported by customer cohort data.
  • All operating results are before tax. No tax rate is asserted.
  • The £4.50 average is treated as recognised revenue. If applicable tax is included in the customer price, recognised revenue would be lower.
  • No financing, depreciation or capital expenditure schedule is modelled.
  • The trial model separates annual operating result from the cash needed before break-even.
  • Both areas start together. Their registered audiences are acquired evenly through the year, and each month uses the audience midpoint between opening and closing balances.
  • The 30-venue target in each area (60 overall) is an end-of-trial planning target; not all venues are assumed active immediately.
  • The £34,359 monthly cost is an all-in operating assumption with no validated breakdown.
  • Actual traction has not been supplied or verified for this projection. The model assumes 2 planned London locations, each treated as a neighbourhood operating catchment rather than an individual venue, with 10,000 registrations and 30 target venues per area (20,000 registrations and 60 target venues overall).
  • The operating cost base and equipment prices use euro-denominated planning inputs converted once at the European Central Bank euro reference rate of 9 September 2026, EUR 1 = GBP 0.85898. The average coordination fee of £4.50 per player per game is a separate, direct sterling assumption for the London launch — not a conversion.
04

One-year scenario projections

Figures are rounded to the nearest pound. Operating results exclude additional setup spending, financing, depreciation and corporation tax, and retain the assumption that £4.50 is recognised revenue.

One-year scenario projections
MeasureUnderperformingCentralStrong
Paying share at full activity10%25%40%
Games per monthly payer246
Year-one revenue£99,563£497,813£1,194,750
Operating costs£412,310£412,310£412,310
Operating surplus / (loss)(£312,748)£85,502£782,440
First month covering monthly costsNot reachedMonth 7Month 4
Cumulative operating break-evenNot reachedMonth 11Month 6
Peak cumulative operating cash deficit£312,748£113,343£62,578
The strong case is a sensitivity, not a dependable forecast. It assumes both high participation and high frequency while costs remain unchanged. Staffing, support and processing capacity would need to be demonstrated at that volume.
The underperforming case is not a worst-case floor: demand could be lower.
05

Central-case quarterly projection

Totals use unrounded calculations; displayed amounts may differ by £1 when added.

Central-case quarterly revenue and operating cost (GBP)
0k50k100k150k200k250kCost £103,078Q1 · 50%Q2 · 75%Q3 · 100%Q4 · 100%
Central-case quarterly projection
MeasureQ1Q2Q3Q4Year
Registered users at quarter end5,00010,00015,00020,00020,000
Average registered users2,5007,50012,50017,50010,000
Activity factor50%75%100%100%—
Revenue£16,875£75,938£168,750£236,250£497,813
Operating costs£103,078£103,078£103,078£103,078£412,310
Operating surplus / (loss)(£86,203)(£27,140)£65,672£133,172£85,502
The first six months generate an operating deficit of approximately £113,343. A positive full-year result therefore does not remove the need for launch funding.
Month 12 generates approximately £86,250 revenue, using 19,166.67 average registered users during that month. The £90,000 monthly revenue figure is the full-population steady monthly state, applying only once all 20,000 registrations are available for an entire month.
06

Funding requirement

A provisional funding envelope can combine the peak operating deficit with a separate setup allowance and contingency.

Funding requirement
Funding componentCentral caseUnderperforming case
Peak operating cash deficit£113,342.70£312,747.90
Illustrative setup allowance£50,000.00£50,000.00
Contingency: 15% of annual operating costs£61,846.56£61,846.56
Provisional opening funding£225,189.26£424,594.46
Rounded planning envelope£230,000£425,000
  • The £50,000 setup allowance and 15% contingency are illustrative allowances, not supplier estimates.
  • Setup spending must cover only items outside the monthly operating budget to avoid double counting.
  • These figures assume customer receipts and operating payments occur in the same month. They exclude settlement delays, payment reserves and separately scheduled tax payments.
  • £230,000 supports the central assumptions; it does not secure a full year under weak demand.
  • Approximately £425,000 supports the modelled underperforming case with the stated allowances. At zero revenue, the exact equivalent requirement is £524,156.96, or approximately £525,000 as a prudent envelope.
  • If setup costs are fully expensed during the trial, the central £85,502 operating surplus reduces to approximately £35,502 before tax, before any contingency is spent.
07

Break-even and sensitivity

At £4.50 recognised revenue per appearance and the existing all-in budget, monthly operating break-even is 7,636 paid appearances, rounded up.

7,636

paid appearances per month

1,909

monthly paying players playing four times each

128

appearances per venue per month across 60 active venues

£34,359.20

monthly operating cost assumption

£34,359.20 ÷ £4.50 = 7,636 paid appearances, rounded up. That is approximately 1,909 monthly paying players playing four times each. Per area, the independently rounded thresholds are 3,818 appearances and 955 players at four games each; summing the two rounded appearance thresholds gives 7,636, which matches the combined threshold in this model. Across 60 active venues overall, the combined threshold averages approximately 128 appearances per venue per month. This calculation depends on the all-in budget actually covering delivery costs.
Sensitivity to central assumptions
Change to central assumptionsAnnual operating result
Baseline£85,502 surplus
Paid activity 25% below projection(£38,951) loss
Operating costs 20% above budget£3,040 surplus
Additional unbudgeted cost of £0.50 per paid appearance£30,190 surplus
£4.50 includes 20% VAT throughout the trial£2,533 surplus
  • Each sensitivity is applied separately.
  • Additional per-appearance costs should be included only if they are absent from the existing all-in budget.
  • The VAT illustration assumes £3.75 recognised revenue from a £4.50 customer payment, unchanged costs and no input VAT recovery. It is a full-year stress test, not a prediction of MYM’s actual tax position.
  • The UK standard VAT rate is 20%; registration generally becomes mandatory above £90,000 taxable turnover, with separate rules for businesses based outside the UK. Both central and strong scenarios require explicit VAT planning. Sources: GOV.UK VAT rates and GOV.UK VAT registration.
08

What the trial must establish

Review these measures at Months 3, 6, 9 and 12. Expansion should depend on observed contribution, retention, capacity and remaining cash.

Acquisition economics

Reaching 20,000 registrations requires approximately 1,666.67 registrations each month across both areas. The current budget has no validated acquisition breakdown. MYM should measure spending per first-time paying customer, alongside registration costs.

Repeat paid behaviour

The central scenario depends on 25% of the registered base paying monthly at full activity and playing four times a month. Track first-to-second paid game conversion and 30-, 60- and 90-day repeat use.

Venue capacity

In Month 12, the central case generates approximately 19,167 paid appearances. Across 60 active venues, that is roughly 319 appearances per venue: approximately 160 two-player sessions or 80 four-player sessions per month. Actual planning must reflect the game mix, session length and available time slots.

Realised fee income

Track completed paid appearances, refunds, discounts and payment costs separately. Registrations, created games and incomplete rosters should not be treated as earned revenue.

A complete operating budget

Replace the converted lump-sum allowance with sterling estimates for people, technology, acquisition, venue onboarding, support, payments, insurance and administration. Confirm which launch expenses sit outside it.

Metrics to track
  • Registration → first paid game. The single most diagnostic conversion in the trial.
  • 30 / 60 / 90-day repeat paid retention. Whether a payer comes back at all.
  • Games per payer per month. The frequency term in the revenue formula.
  • Contribution per appearance. £4.50 average less observed direct cost per appearance.
  • CAC per paying player. Not per registration.
  • Payback on observed retention. CAC against real, measured repeat behaviour.
  • Fill rate. Share of created games that reach a full paid roster.
  • Time to fill. From game creation to the last required payment.
  • Cancellation, no-show and refund rate. Realised versus booked appearances.
  • Venue retention. Venues still hosting games after 30, 60 and 90 days.
  • Total-spend sensitivity. Behaviour when the fee and venue minimum are seen together.
No target values are set for these KPIs. The projections provide a framework for the test; they do not establish demand.
09

Conclusion

A cautious framework for a commercial pilot, not proof of traction.

MeetYourMatch’s one-year two planned London locations trial is potentially viable, but its financial outcome depends on acquiring and retaining a paying audience within a controlled operating budget.

With registrations growing to 20,000 over 12 months, the central model generates approximately £497,813 in revenue and £85,502 in operating surplus before additional setup costs and tax. Monthly operating break-even is reached in Month 7, while the initial operating cash deficit peaks at approximately £113,343.

A provisional funding envelope is £230,000 under the central assumptions, increasing to approximately £425,000 under the modelled underperforming case. These amounts must be refined using actual operating quotes, acquisition results and confirmed VAT treatment.

The trial’s purpose is to establish whether players repeatedly pay for coordination and whether MYM can deliver that service profitably. The projections provide a framework for that test; they do not establish demand.