Executive assessment
Annual revenue
Before setup and tax
Operating cash low point
Rounded central envelope
Hypothetically applying the same per-area assumptions equally to six locations — three times the planned two-location financial model — produces £1,493,438 annual revenue and £256,506 operating surplus, before additional setup costs and tax. The peak operating cash deficit is £340,028. With £150,000 setup allowance and £185,540 contingency, provisional funding is £675,568, rounded up to £680,000.
Six scenario locations
These labels belong only to this hypothetical model; they are not confirmed launch locations. Paired locations remain one operating area rather than separate administrative boroughs.
| Area | Month-12 registrations | Venue coverage |
|---|---|---|
| Scenario Area 1 | 10,000 | Two venues per game |
| Scenario Area 2 | 10,000 | Two venues per game |
| Scenario Area 3 | 10,000 | Two venues per game |
| Scenario Area 4 | 10,000 | Two venues per game |
| Scenario Area 5 | 10,000 | Two venues per game |
| Scenario Area 6 | 10,000 | Two venues per game |
| Total | 60,000 | 120 game–venue pairings |
The ten games are padel, pickleball, table tennis, pool, snooker, darts, chess, backgammon, Texas Hold’em, gin rummy. Two venues × ten games = 20 game–venue pairings per area; across six areas this totals 120 pairings. Each game needs two separate venues in its area. Multi-game venues can satisfy several pairings; 120 pairings do not necessarily require 120 premises.
Foundational assumptions
| Input | Per area | Combined |
|---|---|---|
| Trial duration | 12 months | Same 12 months |
| Starting registrations | 0 | 0 |
| End-of-year registrations | 10,000 | 60,000 |
| Average monthly acquisition | 833.33 | 5,000 |
| Average registered audience during year | 5,000 | 30,000 |
| Game–venue pairings | 20 per area | 120 |
| Fee per paid appearance | £4.50 | £4.50 |
| Monthly operating budget | £17,179.60 | £103,077.60 |
| Annual operating budget | £206,155.20 | £1,236,931.20 |
| Additional setup allowance | £25,000 | £150,000 |
| Contingency | £30,923.28 | £185,539.68 |
Formula
Monthly revenue = average registered users × paying share × games per payer × activity factor × £4.50.
Acquisition determines audience size; the activity factor discounts participation during launch. Each is applied once.
Fee and cost bases
The average coordination fee of £4.50 per paid player appearance is a direct sterling planning assumption for the six-area scenario, not a currency conversion. The operating cost base uses a euro-denominated planning budget converted once at the 9 September 2026 reference rate, then scaled across the six scenario locations with no automatic cost saving assumed.
Cost-side reference rate: EUR 1 = GBP 0.85898, European Central Bank euro reference rates, 9 September 2026.
- All six scenario locations start together only as a model assumption. Registrations grow evenly and each month uses the audience midpoint between opening and closing registration balances.
- Each person is allocated to one primary area; cross-area play does not create another registration.
- Every paid appearance is counted once in its host area.
- Venue spend is collected by venues and excluded from MYM revenue.
- No subscriptions, sponsorship, equipment sales or other income are assumed.
- Shared operating savings are not assumed before validation. Changing venue coverage does not establish a cost reduction.
- Monthly paying share incorporates unvalidated retention and reactivation assumptions.
- All operating results are before tax. No tax rate is asserted.
- The £4.50 average is treated as recognised revenue. If applicable tax is included in the customer price, recognised revenue would be lower.
- No financing, depreciation or capital expenditure schedule is modelled.
- The trial model separates annual operating result from the cash needed before break-even.
- The registered audience is acquired evenly through the year, rather than assumed available on day one.
- All six scenario locations start together only as a model assumption; this is not the announced launch plan. Paired neighbourhoods are treated as single operating areas, not separate administrative boroughs.
- 120 game–venue pairings means two venues per game per area across ten games; multi-game premises can satisfy several pairings, so this is not necessarily 120 premises.
- The £103,078 monthly cost is a sixfold scaled all-in operating assumption with no validated breakdown or shared operating savings.
- Changing venue coverage does not establish a cost reduction before validation.
- Actual operating traction has not been supplied or verified. This hypothetical model assumes 6 scenario locations with 10,000 registrations each (60,000 total) and 120 game–venue pairings.
- The operating cost base and equipment prices use euro-denominated planning inputs converted once at the European Central Bank euro reference rate of 9 September 2026, EUR 1 = GBP 0.85898. The average coordination fee of £4.50 per player per game is a separate, direct sterling assumption for the London launch — not a conversion.
Scenario projections
Results exclude additional setup costs, financing, depreciation and corporation tax. The base assumes £4.50 recognised revenue.
| Measure | Underperforming | Central | Strong |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly paying share at full activity | 10% | 25% | 40% |
| Games per monthly payer | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| Annual revenue | £298,688 | £1,493,438 | £3,584,250 |
| Annual operating costs | £1,236,931 | £1,236,931 | £1,236,931 |
| Operating surplus / (loss) | (£938,244) | £256,506 | £2,347,319 |
| Peak operating cash deficit | £938,244 | £340,028 | £187,733 |
| First month covering operating costs | Not reached | Month 7 | Month 4 |
| Cumulative operating break-even | Not reached | Month 11 | Month 6 |
Central quarterly projection
Totals use unrounded calculations; displayed figures may differ by £1 when added.
| Measure | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Registered users at quarter end | 15,000 | 30,000 | 45,000 | 60,000 | 60,000 |
| Average registered users | 7,500 | 22,500 | 37,500 | 52,500 | 30,000 |
| Activity factor | 50% | 75% | 100% | 100% | — |
| Revenue | £50,625 | £227,813 | £506,250 | £708,750 | £1,493,438 |
| Operating costs | £309,233 | £309,233 | £309,233 | £309,233 | £1,236,931 |
| Operating surplus / (loss) | (£258,608) | (£81,420) | £197,017 | £399,517 | £256,506 |
Central area allocation
Equal results reflect identical assumptions, not measured equality in demand, acquisition cost, retention or capacity.
| Area | Revenue | Operating costs | Operating surplus | Peak operating cash deficit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scenario Area 1 | £248,906 | £206,155 | £42,751 | £56,671 |
| Scenario Area 2 | £248,906 | £206,155 | £42,751 | £56,671 |
| Scenario Area 3 | £248,906 | £206,155 | £42,751 | £56,671 |
| Scenario Area 4 | £248,906 | £206,155 | £42,751 | £56,671 |
| Scenario Area 5 | £248,906 | £206,155 | £42,751 | £56,671 |
| Scenario Area 6 | £248,906 | £206,155 | £42,751 | £56,671 |
| Combined, before rounding | £1,493,438 | £1,236,931 | £256,506 | £340,028 |
Funding requirement
Central, underperforming and zero-revenue funding are separated from the operating result.
| Component | Central case | Underperforming case | Zero-revenue case |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak operating cash deficit | £340,028 | £938,244 | — |
| Annual operating costs | — | — | £1,236,931 |
| Additional setup allowance | £150,000 | £150,000 | £150,000 |
| Contingency: 15% of annual operating costs | £185,540 | £185,540 | £185,540 |
| Provisional opening funding | £675,568 | £1,273,783 | £1,572,471 |
| Rounded planning envelope | £680,000 | £1,275,000 | £1,572,471 |
- The setup allowance and contingency are planning provisions, not supplier quotations.
- Setup spending must cover only items outside the operating budget to avoid double counting.
- £680,000 supports central assumptions, not a guaranteed twelve-month runway under weak demand.
- If all £150,000 of setup expenditure is expensed during the trial, the central operating surplus reduces to £106,506 before tax and before any contingency is spent.
- Cash calculations assume customer receipts and operating payments occur within the same month. Settlement delays, payment reserves and tax-payment timing are not separately scheduled.
Operating break-even
Combined monthly operating costs are £103,077.60. Recognised revenue per paid appearance is £4.50.
combined paid appearances per month
paid appearances per area
players per area at four games
summed independently rounded area thresholds
- Adding the six independently rounded area thresholds produces 22,908 appearances. The one-appearance difference from the combined threshold is solely rounding.
- Break-even depends on the operating budget covering all assumed delivery costs.
Central-case sensitivities
Each change is applied separately to the central case.
| Separate sensitivity | Annual operating result |
|---|---|
| Baseline | £256,506 surplus |
| Paid activity 25% below projection | (£116,853) loss |
| Operating costs 20% higher | £9,120 surplus |
| Additional unbudgeted £0.50 per appearance | £90,569 surplus |
| £4.50 includes 20% VAT throughout | £7,600 surplus |
- The additional per-appearance cost applies only if that cost is absent from the existing operating budget.
- The VAT sensitivity assumes recognised revenue of £3.75 from each £4.50 customer payment, unchanged operating costs and no input VAT recovery.
- It is a stress test, not a completed tax forecast. MYM’s actual VAT registration, pricing and recovery position must be established.
- VAT references: GOV.UK VAT rates and GOV.UK VAT registration.
Venue capacity
These figures illustrate capacity requirements. They are not forecasts of the actual game mix.
Month 12 paid appearances per area
Month 12 paid appearances overall
paid appearances per game–venue pairing
four-player sessions per pairing
In Month 12, the central case generates approximately 9,583 paid appearances per area, or 57,500 across six areas. If demand is distributed equally across ten games and two venues per game, each game–venue pairing handles approximately 479 paid appearances per month. This represents approximately 240 two-player sessions per month, or 120 four-player sessions per month.
- A venue hosting several games must accommodate the combined activity assigned to those games.
- Actual capacity depends on session length, opening hours, equipment, courts, tables and available time slots.
- Two participating venues per game do not automatically guarantee sufficient bookable capacity.
What the trial must establish
These checks determine whether the model is commercially real, not just internally consistent.
Customer acquisition
Measure acquisition cost per first-time paying customer, alongside registration costs. Each area must acquire approximately 833 registrations per month to meet the model.
Repeat paid behaviour
Track first-to-second paid game conversion and repeat use after 30, 60 and 90 days. The central assumption requires 25% of the registered audience to pay in a given month at full activity, with four games per monthly payer.
Local game availability
Measure whether demand is sufficiently concentrated by game, venue, time and playing level to create completed games.
Realised revenue
Track completed paid appearances, discounts, refunds and payment-processing costs. Registrations and incomplete game rosters are not earned revenue.
Venue performance
Measure usable capacity, utilisation, cancellations and continued venue participation. Avoid counting several games at the same premises as several distinct venues.
Operating costs
Replace the lump-sum budget with actual sterling estimates for staffing, technology, acquisition, venue onboarding, support, payments, insurance and administration.
Review gates
Review each area at Months 3, 6, 9 and 12. Combined performance should not conceal an area with weak retention, insufficient game availability or persistent losses.
Central monthly cash schedule
Monthly operating costs remain £103,077.60. The central cash deficit peaks at £340,028 in Month 6. The following figures are rounded to whole pounds.
| Month | Revenue | Operating costs | Operating surplus / (loss) | Cumulative operating surplus / (loss) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | £5,625 | £103,078 | (£97,453) | (£97,453) |
| 2 | £16,875 | £103,078 | (£86,203) | (£183,655) |
| 3 | £28,125 | £103,078 | (£74,953) | (£258,608) |
| 4 | £59,063 | £103,078 | (£44,015) | (£302,623) |
| 5 | £75,938 | £103,078 | (£27,140) | (£329,763) |
| 6 | £92,813 | £103,078 | (£10,265) | (£340,028) |
| 7 | £146,250 | £103,078 | £43,172 | (£296,856) |
| 8 | £168,750 | £103,078 | £65,672 | (£231,183) |
| 9 | £191,250 | £103,078 | £88,172 | (£143,011) |
| 10 | £213,750 | £103,078 | £110,672 | (£32,339) |
| 11 | £236,250 | £103,078 | £133,172 | £100,834 |
| 12 | £258,750 | £103,078 | £155,672 | £256,506 |
Conclusion
A hypothetical six-location framework, not the launch plan or evidence of demand.
The hypothetical six-location model projects central revenue of £1,493,438 and operating costs of £1,236,931, producing an operating surplus of £256,506 before additional setup costs and tax.
The scenario requires 60,000 unique registered users by year end and two venues per game in each of its six hypothetical locations. Provisional central funding is approximately £680,000. The modelled underperforming case requires approximately £1,275,000.
This scenario would have to establish whether each area could acquire a concentrated audience, generate repeat paid play and deliver the required games within its operating budget. Expansion beyond the planned two-location trial remains contingent on evidence. The projections do not establish proven demand or profitability.